Report: significant oversupply of office space predicted in GTA until 2041

The report "Office Needs and Policy Directions in the GTA" was prepared by Altus Group and details three hybrid work scenarios: two, three or four days a week that employees will spend on average in an office. In all but the four-day scenario, there will be millions of square feet of surplus office space until 2041. Even in the four-day scenario, only 15 million sq. ft. of new space would be required– about half of the pace of office demand seen prior to the pandemic. This translates into vacancy rates between 16.5 per cent and 45.7 per cent.

"The pandemic changed business operations in ways that appear to be permanent– an increase in hybrid working models that lower the amount of space needed per employee", says Peter Norman, vice president and chief economist at Altus Group.

Given the current oversupply, projects in the development pipeline, and the weak projected demand for new office space, the report recommends that governments put policies in place to facilitate and incentivize the conversion of functionally obsolete office buildings, and immediately dismantle policies currently in place that restrict or forbid the conversion or redevelopment of existing office space into other uses. It also advises that governments should take a regional approach to planning for future office needs and re-evaluate the amount of lands designated for employment given this oversupply.

"As an association representing office building interests, it is unusual for us to recommend policies that would result in less office space. However, with a likely significant oversupply of office space lasting potentially for decades, governments need to respond to changing work patterns and economic priorities. Many global urban centres are already addressing this challenge," says NAIOP Greater Toronto president Christina Iacoucci.